Covid-19 and SDG 8: Reviving economies, restoring livelihoods

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The Rule of 70, sometimes also referred to as the Guideline of 72 or Guideline of 69.3, is a way for approximating the amount of years it will require for lots to double, given its total annual growth rate. As stated in the book "Summa de Arithmetica", by the "dad of accounting and bookkeeping" Luca Pacioli, in 1494, it is a straightforward calculation where the rule quantity can be divided by the total annual growth rate to get the approximate number of years required for doubling. Applying this guideline for per capita Gross Domestic Merchandise (GDP), it really is proven that if per capita GDP grows at 1 percent per year, then it will require roughly 70 years for the average indivdual in a region to be twice as rich as they are today. Alternatively, if per capita GDP grows at 3 percent per year, it will take only a bit more than 23 years for the average person in a nation to become twice as rich because they are today.

Thus, even small differences in the development rate of the economy above extended periods of time may lead to drastically different expectations of living for the persons of a country. Thus, what are the characteristics of an economy that make it grow more rapidly than others? What plans can the government try accelerate the pace of monetary growth? Regarding such concerns, Nobel laureate economist Robert Lucas remarked, "The consequences for human welfare involved in questions like they are basically staggering: once one starts to think about them, it really is hard to take into account anything else."

The Sustainable Development Target (SDG) 8 acknowledges the importance of economic growth.  However, Covid-19 has taken in unexpected and drastic disruptions that have ravaged the environment economy and can most very likely produce the greatest go up in global unemployment since Globe War II. For Bangladesh, the economical fallout from Covid-19 will end up being multidimensional in nature and massive in magnitude. For instance, by October 2020, legitimate GDP progress for Bangladesh in 2020 has been approximated to come to be 1.6 percent by the World Bank and 3.8 percent by the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

Earlier found in April, the Environment Bank had forecasted that about a disaggregated level, true growth in Bangladesh market in 2020 will be 3.5 percent for the agriculture sector, 2 percent for the industry sector and 3.5 percent for the services sector. At this rate, the agriculture sector would create 0.10 million more jobs, whereas the industry and services sectors would create 0.21 million and 0.9 million fewer jobs respectively, in comparison to 2018-19, assuming that employment-to-GDP elasticity would continue to be add up to that between 2015-16 and 2016-17 and the amount of employment would be add up to that in 2016-17. This shows that the economic slowdown caused by Covid-19 may reduce employment in products and services and industry sectors, but create careers in the agriculture sector, which would reverse years of gradual structural transformation and stall the development of the economy.

Such dismal predictions seem to be to reflect the ground reality since, by June 2020, at least 50,000 low-income individuals left Dhaka and returned to their village homes just after losing their jobs as a result of pandemic.

SDG 8 as well asserts the necessity for decent jobs. Regrettably, despite the rapid economical growth, Bangladesh provides struggled to provide productive employment and good jobs because of its young labour drive. In 2017, the youth unemployment fee was as great as 10.6 percent, whereas the national unemployment rate was 4.2 percent. Regrettably, the unemployment fee among the youth who had completed tertiary-level education was 13.4 percent. Therefore that the training system in Bangladesh has been struggling to endow young people with market-relevant skills. In 2018, the show of the youth Certainly not in Education, Occupation or Schooling (NEET) was 26.2 percent in Bangladesh when compared to global average of 21.2 percent. These concerns are particularly disconcerting for the reason that country is currently at the juncture where it could be in a position to reap the demographic dividends if it can gainfully employ its tremendous young population.

The International Labour Organization has estimated that the fall in working hours in South Asia because of Covid-19 in the first two quarters of 2020 will be equal to 161 million full-time 40-hour-per-week jobs. Computable Basic Equilibrium (CGE) modelling has estimated that almost 140 million persons in five South Parts of asia and 12.37 million in Bangladesh may get rid of their jobs as a result of pandemic. A study by the Asian Development Bank has proven that the amount of online task postings in Bangladesh in April 2020 was simply 13 percent of the amount of online job postings in April 2019. As of April 2020, 71 percent of urban slum-dwellers and 55 percent of the rural poor had no jobs because of Covid-19.

In the reserve "Youth Employment in Bangladesh: Creating Opportunities-Reaping Dividends", which I co-authored, we submit a few suggestions for obtaining SDG 8 in Bangladesh that are considerably more relevant now in the context of Covid-19. Included in these are: i) creating a database of youth NEET; ii) linking youth with employers; iii) revolutionising the education system hence that it could build analytical competence and instil critical thinking skills in students; iv) increasing availability of technology and net, specifically in the rural areas; v) reforming technical and vocational training to handle the current demand of industries; vi) ensuring equal employment opportunities for all without discrimination, prejudice or nepotism; vii) improving access to information at national, regional, and local amounts; viii) promoting self-career through entrepreneurship; ix) rendering profession counselling for the youth from an early on level; x) fostering an allowing environment for female youth; xi) training informal employees; and xii) seeking occupations abroad.

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